Kiwi accelerates following RBNZ interest rate hike

For the third consecutive month, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its benchmark interest rates on Wednesday evening, this time to 3.25%. Not only is the RBNZ the first major central bank to begin raising interest rates since the beginning of the global financial crisis, but they offered strong indications on Wednesday evening that further interest rate hikes are likely to follow. Following the interest rate hike, the NZDUSD climbed to its highest valuation in over a month. It is widely expected that this coming Wednesday's New Zealand GDP release is set to show that the New Zealand economy is rapidly expanding at above a 3% annualized level. 60% of economists are already predicting a further interest rate hike in July.

Shortly following the news that a hawkish RBNZ raised interest rates, close neighbors Australia released employment data which sent the AUDUSD just short of a yearly high. Although the Australian economy unexpectedly lost 5,000 jobs in May, the unemployment rate remained at a steady 5.8%, below the expected 5.9%. After analyzing the employment data in deeper detail, it turned out that the employment contraction last month was enticed by a decline in part time vacancies. In reference to full time employment, over 20,000 jobs were created in Australia last month.  

In a major market surprise, BoE Governor Mark Carney sent the GBPUSD narrowly close to a five-year high, following remarks made at a keynote speech in London. Carney enticed a sudden surge in demand for the GBP, after publically announcing that a UK interest rate rise could happen sooner than the markets expects. Previously, Carney talked down the prospects of a UK interest rate hike, stating that the BoE was in absolutely no hurry to raise rates. This news has again soared suspicions that the BoE may now raise rates this autumn. Also last week, the UK employment rate fell to a 5-year low.

Moving on to the United States, economic performances were mixed last week. The week started positively following the news that US Small Business Optimism reached its highest level in over 7 years last month. This prompted suggestions that small business hiring and expenditure will increase, further elevating the recent progress noted in the employment (initial jobless claims and non-farm payroll) and capital expenditure (durable goods and factory orders).

Unfortunately, Thursday's advance retail sales figure failed to extend the chances of a USD rally. After consumer expenditure advanced to its second highest level in 5 years last month, it was hoped that this would correlate towards an impressive advance retail sales performance. Advance retail sales increased by only 0.3%, short of the 0.6% expectation.

Analysts were quick to decipher why we are not yet encountering additional consumer expenditure, despite the employment sector making substantial progress. So far, the consensus is that average wage growth is not yet increasing to the levels required. Average wage growth increased by 2.1% (annualized) last month, but economists predict that this figure needs to be around 3% before we witness appreciated consumer spending. In theory, with job growth now expanding at pre-recession levels in the United States, this should correct itself. However, bearing in mind that the US economy is heavily reliant on consumer expenditure (70% GDP), patience for improved consumer expenditure releases will be thin. 

What to Watch this Week:

Looking ahead to the coming week, we have a variety of higher risk economic data released throughout the major economies. On Monday morning, we are expecting confirmation that EU CPI figures expanded at an annualised 0.5% in May and on Monday evening, the latest RBA minutes are released.

The RBA minutes pose a potential event risk for the week because last month, the RBA encouraged AUD weakness when they announced that the Australian economy is set to enter a period of weaker than expected economic growth. Despite the previous week's GDP release impressing, it was quickly noted that 0.9% of the 1.1% quarter expansion was led by mining exports. The Australian economy is under pressure to sway towards domestic consumption and away from mining reliance. If the RBA reiterates its dovish comments from last month, or implies that there is going to be a decrease in demand for mining exports, there will be downside risks for the AUD.

Tuesday and Wednesday are the particular days of the week where a sharp increase in volatility is probable. Over these two days, we are expecting key data from the United Kingdom and United States economy. Starting with the United Kingdom, on Tuesday morning the latest UK CPI figures are released. UK inflation is a key benchmark for the BoE to consider an interest rate increase. The BoE’s inflation target is 2%. With Carney now seemingly softening his stance in regards to an interest rate hike, this has the potential to be a market mover.

Last month, the UK inflation level rebounded from a four-year low 1.6% to 1.8%. Since then, UK Services PMI’s (main contributor to the UK GDP) have expanded beyond expectations and UK retail sales growth reached a decade high. Any improvement on last month’s 1.8% CPI reading will likely extend demand for the GBP. A potential rally could extend into Wednesday’s now expectedly hawkish BoE minutes release.

Tuesday is also the start of the latest Federal Reserve two-day meeting. Although the FOMC decision on Wednesday is expected to be a further $10bn taper of the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Easing program, there will be an added significance to this month’s Federal Reserve meeting because it is expected to be followed by an updated version of the Federal Reserve’s latest economic projection, and a live press conference from Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen.

The media will be paying particular attention to Yellen’s tone, specifically any particular hints towards when the Federal Reserve may look to begin raising interest rates. Last month, Yellen confirmed that the Federal Reserve has begun discussing how they will raise interest rates, but added that no time frame for this has been discussed. Since the latest FOMC meeting, US economic data has been widely positive, apart from consumer expenditure. There is a suspicion that the Federal Reserve may pick up on this.

Finally, the week concludes with the latest New Zealand GDP release on Thursday morning, followed by a live press conference from the BoJ’s Kuroda on Friday morning. In reference to the New Zealand GDP, economists are expecting confirmation that the New Zealand economy is expanding at a level above an annualised 3%, and this will likely validate the RBNZ’s indications that there will be further interest rate hikes in the coming months.

Written by Jameel Ahmad, Chief Market Analyst at FXTM.

For more information please visit: Forex Time

Paypal expands payment services to Nigera, 9 other markets

 PayPal is entering 10 new countries this week, including Nigeria, providing online payment alternatives for consumers via mobile phones or PCs in markets often blighted by financial fraud.

Rupert Keeley, the executive in charge of the EMEA region of PayPal, the payments unit of eBay Inc, said in an interview on Monday the expansion would bring the number of countries it serves to 203.

Starting on Tuesday, consumers in Nigeria, which has 60 million users and has Africa's largest population, along with nine other markets in sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Europe and Latin America will be able to make payments through PayPal.

"PayPal has been going through a period of reinvention, refreshing many of its services to make them easier to use on mobile (phones), allowing us to expand into fast-developing markets," Keeley said.

Once the services go live, customers in the 10 countries with access to the Web and a bank card authorized for Internet transactions will be able to register for a PayPal account and make payments to millions of sites worldwide.

Initially, PayPal is only offering "send money" services for consumers to pay for goods and services at PayPal-enabled merchant sites while safeguarding their financial details. This is free to consumers and covered by fees it charges merchants.

"We think we can give our sellers selling into this market a great deal of reassurance," said Keeley, a former regional banking executive with Standard Chartered Plc and senior executive with payment card company Visa Inc.

PayPal does not yet cover peer-to-peer transactions, which allow consumers to send money to other consumers. It has not yet enabled local merchants in the new markets to receive payments, nor is it offering other forms of banking services, he said.

A 2013 survey of 200 UK ecommerce sites by Visa's CyberSource unit estimated that 1.26 percent of online orders are fraudulent and that 85 percent of merchants expected fraud to increase or remain static last year.

CyberSource also estimated that suspicion of fraudulent transactions result in 8.2 percent of online orders in Latin America being rejected by merchants, compared with 5.5 percent in Europe and 2.7 percent in the United States and Canada.

Such fraud can include ID theft, social engineering, phishing and automated harvesting of customer financial data via botnets, or networks of computers controlled by hackers.

A total of 80 million Internet users stand to gain access to PayPal global services this week, including those in five European markets - Belarus, Macedonia, Moldova, Monaco and Montenegro, four in the African nations of Nigeria, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, and Zimbabwe, as well as Paraguay. Internet usage figures are based on research by Euromonitor International.

PayPal counts 148 million active accounts worldwide.

Last week, MasterCard Inc, the world's second-largest debit and credit card company, and a PayPal rival in payment processing, said it was working with the Nigerian government on a pilot to overlay payment technology on a new national identity card.

PayPal has operated in 190 markets since 2007 and added three countries - Egypt, Georgia and Serbia last year. Roughly a quarter of the $52 billion in payment volumes PayPal reported in the first quarter of 2014 were for cross-border transactions. PayPal reported $1.8 billion in revenue during the period.

Culled from www.reuter.com

Online forex trading: Nigeria, bride of brokers

Nigeria is so blessed that it has been described as the ‘Giant of Africa’. But the giant does not seem to recognise her gigantic posture in many areas. The giant goes to sleep and often needs to be awakened. This may be the reason why she still crawls at 100.

The above situation is also playing out in online forex trading and other instruments.

Let me share an experience here. I once opened a forex account with a trading arm of a world-class United Kingdom bank. Before I could fund this account, I got a mail that my account would be closed and it was thus closed. The reason may not be farfetched; the regulatory authorities in such strict financial jurisdiction give their brokers no breathing space. The giant trading outfits of such strictly regulated countries are excluding traders from non-regulated countries.

Also, these strict countries do not get capital gain tax from traders outside their jurisdiction.

Nigeria, according to the first Lagos forex expo website, is estimated to have 300,000 traders (active and docile, I guess); and by Google, its forex trading is ranked as the fastest growing.

With a conservative trading fund/investment of $1,000 per trader, it means Nigeria traders have about $150m worth of investment outside the shores of the country with foreign brokers.

That amount in the local currency at an average exchange rate of $1to N160 is N48bn. What a whooping amount that ought to reside in our banks.

I can bet that if online forex trading is regulated in Nigeria, many brokers will jostle to pick up licences. A renowned forex brokerage firm has Nigeria generating over 20 per cent of its $600m profit, yet it has no presence in the country. It, therefore contributes nothing in terms of tax, human capital development in this field and no direct investment.

An average licence of FX brokerage firms is worth more than $200m, if not more. This is more than what used to be a GSM firm license fee. If 10 forex brokers are in Nigeria, our government can rake in over $2bn (N320bn). The influx of foreign brokers can also spur the emergence of a true Nigerian forex broker.

If we have an estimate of 300,000 traders, assuming each trader places an average of 10 standard lots per month, conservatively, it means foreign brokers are making $20 per standard lot and $200 on 10 trade orders, thus totalling $60m (N10bn) per month. Can’t we have a local broker?

What about the job opportunities this will offer to our populace? This submission is an eye opener about what we stand to gain collectively as a nation with our ‘giant’ status. Africa is seen as the emerging market; in this area, Nigeria is the bride of brokers. There is need to open our doors to this opportunity.

Our financial regulatory authorities should be proactive by swiftly coming up with a framework to harness these opportunities. The world has gone online. We are a sleeping giant; we must wake up to the reality of the current situation.

Market tips for the week Mon June 16 – Fri June 20

Entry (SEP) and exit (TP) could also be at trader’s discretion.

A lot of trading opportunities abound this week in the pairs below.

The strategy is to buy up to the region of sell limits and also sell up to the region of buy limits. Entries can then be as suggested. The last TP could be used also as reversal points.

EUR/NZD: SELL LIMIT@ 1.5700 – 1.5750 TP: 1st – 1.5480   TP:2nd –1.5400 SL: 1.6057

GOLD (XAU/USD): BUY LIMIT@ 1273-1276.20 TP1: 1289.20 TP2:1294.00 SL:1250.14

SILVER (XAG/USD): BUY LIMIT@ 19.75-19.60 TP1: 19.75 TP2:19.97 SL:18.95

EUR/JPY: SELL LIMIT@ 138.50-138.90 TP: 1st – 137.46   TP:2nd –137.01 SL: 140.10

GBP/CHF: BUY LIMIT@ 1.5165 – 1.200 TP: 1st – 1.5475 SL: 1.4990

CHF/AUD: SELL LIMIT@ 1.1860 – 1.1878 TP: 1st – 1.1655   TP:2nd –1.1610 SL: 1.1989

NZD/USD: BUY LIMIT@ 0.8600 – 0.8605 TP: 1st – 0.8745   TP:2nd –0.8778 SL: 0.8401

AUD/CHF: BUY LIMIT@ 0.8399 – 0.8410 TP: 1st – 0.8576   TP:2nd –0.8610 SL: 0.8337

      : by ‘Kunle Adeyeri from Mon, June 30th.

(Visit www.naijaonlinetraders.com and www.kardsfx.com)

Source: Punch Newspaper

The coming 'tsunami of debt' and financial crisis in America

According to research, sectors of the American economy are building to a bubble of parallel and possibly larger scope than the conditions preceding the 2008 financial crisis.

The US Congressional Budget Office is projecting a continued economic recovery. So why look down the road – say, to 2017 – and worry? 

Here's why: because the debt held by American households is rising ominously. And unless our economic policies change, that debt balloon, powered by radical income inequality, is going to become the next bust.

Our macro models at the Levy Economics Institute are showing that the US economy is about to face a repeat of pre-crisis-style, debt-led growth, based on increased borrowing. Falling government deficits are being replaced by rising debts on everyone else's ledgers – well, almost everyone else's.

What's emerging is a new sort of speculative bubble, this time based on consumer and corporate credit.

Right now, America is wrestling a three-headed monster of weak foreign demand, tight government budgets and high income inequality, with every sign that these conditions will continue. With that trio in place, the anticipated growth isn't going to be propelled by an export bonanza, or by a government investment boom.

It will have to be driven by spending. Even a limping recovery like the one we're nursing along today depends on domestic demand – consumer spending not just by the wealthy, but by everyone else.

We believe that Americans will keep consuming at the same ever-rising rates of past decades, during good times and bad. But for the vast majority, wages and wealth aren't going up, so we're anticipating that the majority of Americans – the 90% – will once again do what was done before: borrow, and then borrow more.

By early 2017, with growth likely to stall even according to CBO predictions, it should be apparent that we're reliving an alarming history. Middle- and low-income households have been following a trajectory of an ever-higher ratio of debt to income. That same ratio has been decreasing for the most well-off 10%, who are continuing to see debt decline and wealth rise.

 Forces that prompted Occupy movements protesting income inequality and financial misconduct are again in action, according to research. Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Why is the relationship between the debt of the 90% and the gains of the 10% so significant?

The evidence demonstrates that the de-leveraging of the very rich and the indebtedness of almost everyone else move in tandem; they follow the same trend line. 

In short, there's a strong and continuous correlation between the rich getting richer, and the poor – make that the 90% – going deeper into debt.

That the share of income and wealth to the richest has skyrocketed is certainly not a new revelation. The heralded data tabulations of Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez have demonstrated just how spectacular the plutocrats' portion became in the run-up to the Great Recession. They codified the belief that no one else can ever catch up with the very wealthiest.

One important explanation for that consolidation of wealth emerged from our latest research: The more – proportionally – that the top 10% has prospered, saved and invested (naturally, the gains found their way into the financial markets), the more the bottom 90% has borrowed.

Look at the record of how these phenomena have travelled in lockstep. In the first three decades after the second world war, the income of the 90% rose at the same pace as its consumption. But after the mid-1970s, a gap formed – the trend lines on earning and outlays spread apart. Spending continued apace. Real income, meanwhile, stagnated. It was lower in 2012 than it had been forty years earlier. That ever-increasing gap between income and consumption has been filled by borrowing.

 In less than 30 years the richest 20% became twice as wealthy. Photograph: Jan Butchofsky-Houser/Corbis

These were the debt dynamics in the lead-up to the recession. But they are also the dynamics leading out of the crisis, and continuing today with no end in sight.

Before and after the crash, the fortunes of the most fortunate sped upward. Between 1983 and 2010, for example, the richest 20% increased in wealth by 100%. But their proportion of debt to wealth fell.

The bottom 40%, meanwhile, lost 270% in wealth. 

It was much applauded when households began to rapidly pay down debt after 2007. And yet, despite this, their debt to equity ratio actually rose. With incomes plunging and the value of their assets – notably, housing – in a free-fall, they couldn't de-leverage fast enough. Debt outpaced everything else.

Insolvency for the 90% – the overwhelming majority of Americans – has become, in the decade's catch phrase, "the new normal". Unsustainable? Of course.

The debt picture is also changing dramatically for corporations. Historically, the private sector, which often goes by the moniker Corporate America, had not, overall, been borrowers. They increased their revenues far more than they borrowed money. Their net lending was exceptionally low, hovering at around 4% of GDP between 1960 and the mid 1990s.

 Corporations are increasing their debt in the same way households did before the 2008 crisis, which left many families homeless and erecting tent cities, like this one in Sacramento. Photograph: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

After the crisis, corporations, like households, pulled way back on borrowing. But, also like households, they are now increasing their debt. The steep rise began for non-financial corporations in 2010 (for families and individuals, debt levels began to go upwards again in 2013). We think these businesses will add another $4tn of debt between now and 2017.

Under the current disastrous economic and tax policies, we can look forward to rapid increases in debt for both corporations and households from at least 2015 to 2017: a tsunami of debt.

Alternatively, a teeth-gritting brake on household and corporate spending would be no help at all.

That's because if levels of debt and consumer consumption go down, the nation would move into what's called secular stagnation: anemic growth, if any, and higher unemployment. The CBO projections for growth can't possibly be met unless Americans take on massive liabilities, piling debt upon debt. Without debt accumulation, there wouldn't be enough demand – spending – to keep the economy moving.

To paraphrase Voltaire's words on God, even if bubbles and debt did not exist, it would be necessary to invent them. And that is exactly what we are doing. 

Source: The Guardian(UK.)