INVESTORS CONTINUE TO IGNORE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) PRESIDENT

ECB President, Mario Draghi

Despite the EU economic sentiment remaining bleak and European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi reaffirming his displeasure with an elevated EURUSD only last Thursday, investors remain undeterred from purchasing the EURUSD. The pair recorded a second consecutive day of gains and advanced to 1.3611.

This increase in valuation materialized despite disappointing economic releases. For the second day running, all spotlight was on Germany and in continuation with a recent unfamiliar pattern, their metric data raised a few eyebrows. On an adjusted monthly basis, imports contracted by 3.4% (sharpest decline in nearly two years) with exports also contracting by 1.1%.

The GBPUSD pair marginally increased in valuation to 1.7130; however, this was not withstanding a rollercoaster of volatility. Following last week’s Markit Manufacturing PMIs cataloguing its highest reading since November 2013 an assessment that the sector was currently “flourishing”, optimism was high for Tuesday’s Manufacturing Production reading. Unfortunately, the bulls were thwarted.

The GBPUSD dropped around 60 pips following the surprising news that on a monthly basis, manufacturing production contracted by 1.3%. Industrial Production followed a similar pattern, recording a 0.7% monthly contraction. As the day progressed, further losses were spared and the GBPUSD subsequently bounced back when June’s NIESR GDP estimate showcased that UK second quarter economic growth increased to 0.9%, up from 0.8% in the previous quarter.

Moving onto the USDJPY and despite metric data releases from both countries being low, this pair collected its third day of consecutive losses. The USDJPY dropped 30 pips and concluded trading at 101.565. This was likely linked to Monday’s announcement that Japan’s Trade Deficit narrowed slightly in May, alongside Deputy Bank of Japan Governor Nasako displaying confidence during a speech in Tokyo that the Japanese central bank will be internally prepared to deal with withdrawing from Quantitative Easing.

The Aussie continues to show resilience in spite of dovish comments from RBA Governor Stevens last week that investors were underestimating the chances of a significant fall in the Australian currency. The Australian economy received a boost, following the announcement that Westpac Consumer Confidence rose 1.9% in July to 94.9 and the AUDUSD concluded trading at 0.9357.

Finally, the NZDUSD reached its highest valuation since August 2011 after credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings reaffirmed the country’s AA rating and upgraded its outlook from stable to positive. The NZDUSD increased as high as 0.8804 on the announcement and concluded trading at 0.8785. The 0.88 level has previously been viewed as a psychological resistance level for the pair and in April, a dovish speaking RBNZ threatened implementing currency intervention methods to prohibit investors purchasing their currency.

The New Zealand central bank are unlikely to verbally threaten currency intervention yet though, and will likely wait to see whether tonight’s Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes release inspires risk appetite into the currency markets.

This could be a story that develops as we head into the next trading week.

Written by Jameel Ahmad, Chief Market Analyst, FXTM.

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Nigeria adds 11 non-oil products to export list

In line with the Federal Government’s efforts at diversifying the economy, the Nigerian Export Promotion Council said 11 more products had been added to the non-oil products that the country exported to the global market between 2013 and now.

The new products, according to the NEPC, are educational books, robusta coffee, double folded dust sheets, ice making machine, mica muscovite and leather furniture.

Others are high density polyethylene, aluminium ingots, reduced iron and iron pellets, garments and yam.

The primary markets and destinations for the products are Sierra Leone, Spain, the United Kingdom, Ghana, India, Republic of Benin, Japan, Bulgaria and the United States, while high density polyethylene is exported to the Economic Community of West African States member countries.

The NEPC said there was a steady growth in the non-oil exports, with a value of $2.97bn in 2013, accounting for 15.9 per cent increase over 2012, with a value of $2.56bn                             .

“We have about 11 new products, which we introduced from 2013 to various new markets in Africa and the world; these are products that give Nigeria competitive advantage; it is a very interesting development for the country,” the Executive Director, NEPC, Mr. Olusegun Awolowo, told our correspondent.

He added that the country’s exports were no longer limited to the traditional markets of Europe, especially the United Kingdom.

According to statistics by Cobalt International, other non-oil products that were exported from the country to other parts of the world in 2013 comprised cocoa and cocoa preparations, sheep and goat skins, sesame seeds, aluminium articles, rubber, tobacco products, cotton, yarns and woven fabrics, copper, cashew nuts, prawns, shrimp as well as fish.

The NEPC said at a recent workshop that the country’s participation in international trade fairs and exhibitions every year had contributed largely in exposing local companies to the international market and opened up new opportunities for foreign exchange.

It stated, “In the year 2013, 13 of such outings were spearheaded by the council. A total number of 126 companies, mainly Small and Medium Enterprises, benefited. On-the-spot sales and orders generated by these companies amounted to $627,108.23 and $3,716,920.51, respectively.

“Executed order as of the end of February 2014 that was reported to NEPC was $763,247.85. It is also on recorded that made-in-Nigeria products, especially in the West African sub-region market, elicited great demand.”

Awolowo said despite challenges in agricultural yield and the security issues in the northern part of the country, there were strong indications that the value of non-oil exports at the end of 2014 would be higher than the previous year’s.

“This is the second quarter, the year can be better and we feel we can do better with a little above the result we have in 2013,” he added.

Awolowo noted that the rebased Gross Domestic Product of the country had increased the confidence of other countries in the Nigerian economy.

“On the industry, there is an effect of the rebased GDP and we are using that as a wake-up call that we must export more. We must keep up with the Nigerian Industrial Revolution Policy by showing that we export processed goods so that we can add value and create jobs. It is a positive thing for Nigeria and we have the population to back it up,” he added.

Awolowo, however, expressed fears that the Export Expansion Grant might affect the performance of local manufacturers and consequently the export figure.

The Director-General, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mr. Muda Yusuf, also said that with the productivity challenges plaguing the country, it would be difficult for the non-oil sector to make significant impact on the economy despite its growth rate.

He said, “The economy has very serious productivity challenges and as long as we have these problems, especially by enterprises and those that are in the real sector of the economy, it is difficult to make any significant impact in the non-oil sector.

“Currently, the bulk of what we export is primary products and that cannot give us much value as an economy. When you export something on which you have added value but because of productivity challenges, it is difficult to produce anything competitively; therefore, we are not making the kind of mark we should make in the non-oil export sector.

“Even within the oil sector, we are not supposed to be exporting just crude oil; that is a problem for Nigeria as an oil producing country.”

According to Yusuf, as long as the productivity level remains low, the country cannot be competitive. He added that lack of basic infrastructure, high production costs, bureaucracy and high cost of funds remained major problems for the non-oil export.

He said, “How can we produce for export with those conditions, or with a manufacturer using diesel in his factory? We need to address productivity issues in the real sector, and then, the government should be more serious in creating value addition even in the oil sector.

“It is bad that we are still exporting crude and importing refined products when we should be exporting refined and petrochemical products from our plants where we will make more money than crude oil itself.”

The President, Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture, Alhaji Mohammed Abubakar, also said there was a need for the country to align with global trend to enhance its competitiveness by re-focusing and re-strategising on productivity.

“To achieve this feat of boosting non-oil exports in the country, with a view to making the sector vibrant and competitive in terms of exportable products and revenue generation, the government must be ready to demonstrate the political will by ensuring the provision of the desired enabling environment, including, of course, adequate infrastructure and incentives to encourage the production of quality goods and services in Nigeria,” he said.

Source: Punch Newspaper.

Firm, AMCON disagree on divestment from Mainstreet Bank

The ongoing proceedings at the International Court of Arbitration (ICA), instituted by Intangis Holdings Limited may stall the divestment plans of Asset Management Company of Nigeria (AMCON) in Mainstreet Bank.

  The new twist at the threshold of the sale of the bridged bank was at the instance of Intangis, which alleged a breach of agreement it reached with Afribank Plc in 2009.

  It would be recalled that Mainstreet Bank emerged from the financial bailout programme in the banking industry by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and AMCON.

  The said agreement, tagged “Confidential and Non-Circumvention Agreement,” had held that Afribank would not enter into discussions or negotiations with any potential investor in relation to acquisition of a portfolio of non-performing loans and that of a minority stake in its share capital.

  But in a draft response to the company claims by AMCON, the bad debt agency explained that Intangis was pursuing a frivolous claim.

  According to AMCON, it was not party to any agreement with Intangis and Mainstreet was not existing at the time the agreement was reached.

  Mainstreet, which came after a special audit in the banking industry that found it, along with nine others in “grave situation,” sacked the bank’s board and management, with a view to cleaning and repositioning it.

  However, according to AMCON, with apparent lack of capacity to recapitalize before the September 2011 deadline given to it by CBN, Affribank’s license was revoked.

  But with the Nigerian Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), pursuant to its enabling Act (section 39), in collaboration with CBN, executed a Purchase and Assumption Agreement, whic allowed Mainstreet Bank to purchase assets and assume certain liabilities of Afribank, while AMCON subscribed to the shares of the emerged bank.

  AMCON pointed out that Intangis’ claim, anchored on its ongoing divestment of interest in Mainstreet, is frivolous because neither it nor Mainstreet was a party to the agreement and neither party assumed Afribank’s obligations on the agreement.

  It also noted that the agreement in question had expired by November 2, 2011, and there was no subsisting or existing contract, which AMCON can be said to be breaching or inducing its breach.

  “Even if the CNCA had not expired, the ongoing transaction relating to divestment of AMCON’s shareholding in Mainstreet Bank does not constitute a prohibited transaction under its expired terms,” the response added.

Source: Guardian Newspaper