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Monday, 11 April 2016

U.S. banks' dismal first quarter may spell trouble for 2016


It is only April, but some on Wall Street are already predicting a rotten 2016 for U.S. banks.

Analysts say it has been the worst start to the year since the financial crisis in 2007-2008 and expect poor first-quarter results when reporting begins this week.

Concerns about economic growth in China, the impact of persistently low oil prices on the energy sector, and near-zero interest rates are weighing on capital markets activity as well as loan growth.

Analysts forecast a 20 percent decline on average in earnings from the six biggest U.S. banks, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S data. Some banks, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N), are expected to report the worst results in over ten years.

This spells trouble for the financial sector more broadly, since banks typically generate at least a third of their annual revenue during the first three months of the year.

"What's concerning people is they're saying, 'Is this going to spill over into other quarters?'" Goldman's lead banking analyst Richard Ramsden said in an interview. "If you do have a significant decline in revenues, there is a limit to how much you can cut costs to keep things in equilibrium."

Investors will get some insight on Wednesday, when earnings season kicks off with JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), the country's largest bank. That will be followed by Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) on Thursday, Citigroup Inc (C.N) on Friday, and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, in the following week.

Banks have been struggling to generate more revenue for years, while adapting to a panoply of new regulations that have raised the cost of doing business substantially.

The biggest challenge has been fixed-income trading, where heavy capital requirements, new derivatives rules, and restrictions on proprietary trading have made it less profitable, leading most banks to simply shrink the business.

Bank executives have already warned investors to expect major declines across other areas as well.

Citigroup Inc (C.N) CFO John Gerspach said to expect trading revenue more broadly to drop 15 percent versus the first quarter of last year. JPMorgan Chase & Co's (JPM.N) Daniel Pinto said to expect a 25 percent decline in investment banking. Several bank executives have warned about declining quality of energy sector loans.

Global investment banking fees for completed merger and acquisitions, and stock and bond underwriting, totaled $15.6 billion in the first quarter, a 28 percent decline for the year-ago period, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Volatility in stock prices and plunging commodities prices caused trading volume to dry up during most of the quarter. Trading activity picked up slightly in March but was not strong enough to offset declines during the first two months of the year.

Analysts have been lowering first-quarter estimates over the last month in light of business pressures. They now expect JPMorgan to report adjusted earnings of $1.30 per share, Bank of America to report 24 cents per share, Wells Fargo to report 99 cents per share, Citigroup to report $1.11 per share, and Morgan Stanley to report 63 cents per share. Goldman is expected to report $3.00 per share, the lowest first-quarter earnings since before the financial crisis.

Matt Burnell, a Wells Fargo banking analyst, said in a research note Friday that capital markets weakness may extend at least into the second quarter.

Analysts said there may be some loan growth outside of the energy sector, and a small uptick in net interest margins, a measure of loan profitability, but overall, the tone was less-than-optimistic.

"The first quarter is going to be ugly and we don't think that necessarily gets recovered in the back half of the year," said Jerry Braakman, chief investment officer of First American Trust, which owns shares of Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Goldman. "There are a lot of challenges ahead."

Source: www.reuters.com

Asia shares, dollar start week on the back foot


Asian stocks wobbled on Monday and Japan's Nikkei index slid as the dollar notched a fresh 17-month low against the yen.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS erased earlier losses and edged up about 0.1 percent, after Wall Street ended with modest gains on Friday even as the S&P 500 .SPX still suffered its biggest weekly decline in two months.

Japan's Nikkei stock index .N225 tumbled 1.3 percent. In addition to a stronger currency, data released early on Monday showed Japan's core machinery orders fell 9.2 percent in February from the previous month, in a sign that business investment remains subdued.

"While February's machinery orders fell less than anticipated, Japan markets remain weighed down by a strengthening yen and uncertainty surrounding when, or if, the Bank of Japan will intervene," said Andrew Meredith, co-managing director at Tyton Capital Advisors.

Data out on Monday showed China's consumer price inflation was less than expected in March, while wholesale prices declined less than anticipated, in a sign that deflationary pressure in the industrial sector may be easing.

While the figures pointed to stabilizing prices, they also underscored that the central bank's prolonged easing campaign begun in late 2014 has yet to result in substantial price increases.

Chinese shares were higher in early trading, with the blue-chip CSI300 index .CSI300 up 1.8 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC added 1.9 percent.

The greenback's recent slide against the yen prompted a chorus of warnings from officials in Tokyo and put investors on alert for direct yen-selling intervention, though many believed Japan would stay its invention hand.

Japan's top government spokesman, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, said on Monday that recent currency moves were one-sided and speculative and that the government would take steps as needed.

The dollar wallowed close to lows notched last week, as investors mulled the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve seen as being more cautious on hiking interest rates than some investors had believed.

The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. unit against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.2 percent to 94.094 .DXY, within sight of last week's low of 94.015, which was its lowest since October.

The euro EUR= was up about 0.1 percent at $1.1412, not far from last week's high of $1.1454, its highest since October.

The dollar slipped 0.2 percent to 107.91 yen JPY= after earlier nudging down to 107.63, which was its weakest since October 2014.

Crude oil prices pared earlier gains but were still higher after soaring more than 6 percent on Friday. They also marked gains of about 8 percent for the week, as drawdowns in U.S. crude stockpiles fed hopes that the end was in sight for the global supply glut that has plagued the industry for nearly two years.

U.S. crude futures added 0.4 percent to $39.87 a barrel after jumping 6.6 percent on Friday, while Brent crude LCOc1 was also up about 0.4 percent at $42.12, after settling up 6.4 percent.

The weaker dollar and stock market losses helped lift spot gold to its highest in nearly three weeks. Gold XAU= rose to $1,251.70 an ounce, its highest since March 22. It was last up about 0.9 percent at $1,251.00

Source: www.reuters.com

Interbank rates fall amid N519b NDIC premium, CRR debits, forex provisions


For the second week in a row, the interbank lending rates failed to rise even as the liquidity level in the financial system was depleted significantly towards the end of the week’s activities, from about N518.8 billion to N405 billion.

The cash withdrawals effected through premium payments to the Nigerian Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC); Cash Reserve Requirements (CRR) debits and foreign exchange auction provisions by bank left the Open Buy-Back and Overnight rates lower than previous week at 3.1 per cent and 3.6 per cent respectively.

A trader said that the level of liquidity now is sufficient to support transactions at the money market, leading to moderation of borrowing costs among banks, defying rate influencing factors.

Already, there are projections that the mood in the market will subsist this week, as treasury bills worth N91 billion will be due for redemption, while unfulfilled cash deposits made for forex auction by banks will return to the system.

The OBB and Overnight rates had opened last week at 3.8 per cent and 4.3 per cent due to robust system liquidity and later rose by 2.5 per cent and 2.3 per cent to settle at 6.3 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively as the CBN mopped up about N40.3 billion from the system.

The rates however moderated to 3.8 per cent and 4.4 per cent in the middle of the week as inflows from unfulfilled foreign exchange provisioning refunds by CBN to banks for the previous week hit the system.

Consequently, market liquidity stood at N923.8 mid-week, but reduced to about N405 billion as market opened on Thursday and subsequently, closed the week down at 0.7 per cent week-on-week respectively.

Meanwhile the foreign exchange market continues to remain relatively stable week-on-week, although the spread between the official/interbank and the BDC/parallel market rates remains staggering.

While the Naira/Dollar exchange rate at the CBN and interbank remained at N197/$ and N199.50/$, at the BDC segment, it traded at N320/$ on all trading days of the week, with the parallel market rate pegged at N322/$ on all trading days, except Tuesday when it declined marginally to N323/$.

Relatedly, the treasury bills market was broadly bullish last week as average rate declined on most trading days.

Specifically, average bill eased 0.6 per cent from the previous trading session to close at eight per cent at the beginning of the week, declined further by 0.1 per cent to 7.9 per cent on Tuesday, as activities on short termed instruments increased.

In the middle of the week, CBN auctioned treasury bill worth N218.9 billion, allotting N19 billion for 91-day; N33.5 billion, 182-day; and N166.4 billion for 364-day, at stop rates of 6.1 per cent, 8.7 per cent and 9.5 per cent respectively.

With interests focused majorly in the 364-day bills, it was oversubscribed by about 175.4 per cent, compared with the 91-day bill that was undersubscribed by 54.5 per cent.

Source: Guardian Newspaper.

Stock index provider to delist Nigeria as forex crisis lingers


• Govt laments $2.8b capital flight over importation of ICT wares
• Customs probes discharge of oil, gas cargoes at terminals
Stakeholders in the financial market have expressed worry about the poor handling of sensitive issues in the economy by government, particularly with regard to the lingering fuel scarcity and foreign exchange needed to import the commodity.

The implications, besides the foreign exchange-related pressure on the economy so far, are the aggregate value of man-hours lost at the fuel stations and the attendant high cost of basic needs.
Meanwhile, the stock index provider, MSCI World, is currently seeking feedback from investors on the ease of access to the Nigerian equity market, in a move that could finally lead to the exclusion of the nation’s bourse from MSCI’s Frontier Markets index.
The MSCI World is a stock market index of 1,631 ‘world’ stocks maintained by MSCI Inc. and used as a common benchmark for ‘world’ or ‘global’ stock funds that attract investors.
Besides, the Federal Government has expressed worry about the increasing apathy towards locally made Information and Communications Technology (ICT) products, especially the hardware. The government said it had discovered that Nigeria loses about $2.8 billion to the importation of hardware yearly.
In the same vein, following persistent protest from some facilitators of Free Trade Zones (FTZs) against alleged ‘ monopoly’ in the Nigerian oil and gas logistic supply services, the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) has announced plans to carry out an investigation.
The continuous delay in the implementation of the 2016 budget and the dark cloud around the possibility of implementing the figures due to poor earnings’ profile of government are also critical challenges that the economy and the administration stand to battle with.
Analysts at Afrinvest Securities Limited told The Guardian at the weekend, however, that to pull the system out of the current economic challenges, the time had come for the administration to review its approach to solving the lingering energy crisis in the country, together with its foreign exchange component.
In a statement issued last week by MSCI World, according to Reuters, the consultation followed the introduction of restrictions on foreign currency trading, saying that it would make public its decision on or before April 29.
With Nigeria in the throes of severe economic crisis due to the falling crude oil price, which reduced foreign exchange earnings, the apex bank decided to peg the currency and introduce curbs to protect reserves that are now at 11-year low at $27.67 billion.
The restrictions have been a long-drawn battle between the financial system regulator and the local/foreign portfolio investors, with JPMorgan delisting the country from its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets.
MSCI said that the ease of capital inflows and outflows was one of the key criteria in its market classification framework- foreign exchange, which specifically appears to be the major issue cited by JPMorgan.
“Introduction of restrictive measures, such as capital or foreign exchange controls, which can lead to material deterioration of equity market accessibility, may result in the exclusion of such market from the MSCI Frontier Markets Indexes and a reclassification to Standalone Market status,” it warned.
The Global Chief Economist at Renaissance Capital, Charles Robertson, said the possibility that Nigeria might lose its place in the index had been a risk since it was excluded from key bond indices by JPMorgan and Barclays last year.
“Now the risk has become acute. Being excluded would create a higher hurdle to attracting future investments, as there would be no need for passive frontier market funds, which track the MSCI index, to hold Nigerian stocks.”
However, the Head of Investment Research at Afrinvest, Ayodeji Eboh, said: “Deregulating the downstream oil and gas sector remains the most efficient option. The protracted challenges in the currency market require more creative solutions as the ongoing fuel scarcity cannot be isolated from the difficulty in providing foreign exchange for the importation of petrol to meet domestic demand.
“Apart from the continuous delay in the 2016 budget implementation, the government is yet to communicate a well-articulated economic plan to drive market expectation and stabilise the system. A plethora of progressive and reflationary monetary and fiscal policies need to be put in place.”
At the end of his tour of FTZs in Lagos, Comptroller General of Customs, Col. Hameed Alli (rtd), said the plan to investigate the alleged monopoly in Nigerian oil and gas logistic supply services was in line with the Federal Government’s resolve to promote fairness and transparency in the sector.
According to the customs boss, the alleged monopoly in an FTZ and its legal status are to be investigated and a decision taken at the end of the exercise.
He said: “President Muhammadu Buhari stands for fairness and transparency. The idea of change is to do business in the right frame of work. We will go back and look at the law that exists. If we find any act of injustice, we will address it.”
The chairman of Jagal Group, owners of Nigerdock, Anwar Jarmakani had during Ali’s visit to Snake Island Integrated Free Zone (SIIFZ) recently said Nigeria was losing between $3 and $5 on every barrel of oil produced, which according to him translates to $1.5 billion yearly to non-existent laws, which purportedly encourages monopoly in oil and gas logistics in the country
Jarmakani, who is the chairman of SIIFZ, explained that monopoly had destroyed Nigeria’s reputation in oil and gas logistics. According to him, dominant monopoly in Nigeria’s oil and gas, as well as supply services had existed for over 20 years “sabotaging the national economy, conspiring and working against any potential competitors, particularly against Snake Island Integrated Free Zone.”
Jarmakani added: “The monopoly has consistently used this non-existent law to coerce the industry and service providers into doing their bidding and thereby undermining the Nigerian economy. If this law indeed exists, the Federal Government of Nigeria would not have encouraged other critical players like SIIFZ to make a huge investment in this industry.”
The Minister of Communications, Adebayo Shittu who disclosed the huge capital flight in Lagos, at the weekend, at an event organised by the Association of Telecommunications Companies of Nigeria (ATCON) in his honour said the government looked to leverage the communication technology sector to solve the problem of unemployment in the country because the revenue from the oil and gas sector had been on a steady decline since early 2015. He noted: “Therefore every avenue that is bringing losses to the country must be blocked completely.”
Shittu who said government targets the creation of two million jobs in the next six months charged ATCON to come up with how best the sector could be useful in the current skill gap, stressing that he believed the country had the enabling environment and laws needed to foster the required growth.
Indeed, findings by The Guardian yesterday, revealed that on a monthly basis, about four million mobile phone units are imported into Nigeria.
An industry source, who preferred anonymity told The Guardian that in 2014 alone, about 24 million units of mobile phones were shipped into the country with smartphones accounting for 20 per cent.

Commenting on local content development, Shittu said he had observed that one of the major challenges to growing Nigeria’s ICT sector had largely been apathy towards indigenous products and services.
“Reports reaching me show that the country is losing about $2.8 billion yearly to the continued importation of ICT hardware and services as capital flights from the country.
“We would like to see international brands establish factories in Nigeria or partner any local operators or buy components of their systems that are produced by local manufacturers as well as maintaining in-country research and development departments for the purpose of product conceptualisation, innovation, adaptation and design development.
“The local content development policy would be implemented to protect indigenous players in the industry and the ministry would galvanise the right policies that would see to the need of Small and Medium scale Enterprises (SMEs),” he stressed.
Source: Guardian Newspaper.

Sunday, 10 April 2016

Egypt, Saudi Arabia sign 60 billion Saudi riyal investment fund pact

Egypt and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement late on Saturday to set up a 60 billion Saudi riyal investment fund among other investment agreements including an economic free-zone to develop Egypt's Sinai region, Egyptian state television reported.

The signing of the agreements took place in Egypt's Abdeen palace in the presence of Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Saudi's King Salman, during a rare 4-day visit to Egypt.

Egypt has struggled to spur economic growth since the 2011 uprising ushered in political instability that scared off tourists and foreign investors, key sources of foreign currency.

Egyptian state TV said the agreement was to establish "a Saudi-Egyptian investment fund with a capital of 60 billion riyals between the Saudi Public Investment Fund and the entities belonging to it and the Egyptian government and the entities that belong to it."

A memorandum of understanding was also signed between the Saudi Public Investment Fund and the Egyptian International Cooperation Ministry to set up an economic free-zone in Sinai. No other details were announced.

The two countries also signed agreements to develop a 2250 Megawatt electricity plant with a cost of $2.2 billion, set up agriculture complexes in Sinai and develop a canal to transfer water, a statement from the Presidency said.

The statement also said that a company was set up to develop 6 square kilometers of the industrial zone around Egypt's Suez Canal worth $3.3 billion, without giving further details.

The investments are part of a change in strategy from Saudi Arabia to focus more on financial support that will also benefit Saudi Arabia with return on investment.

Saudi Arabia, along with other Gulf oil producers, has pumped billions of dollars, including grants, into Egypt's flagging economy since the army toppled President Mohamed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood in 2013 after mass protests against his rule.

Some of the projects announced on Saturday include private sector investments. Last week the deputy head of the Saudi-Egyptian Business Council told Reuters that Saudi businessmen are investing around $4 billion in projects in Egypt and have already deposited 10 percent of that sum in Egyptian banks.

Egypt is aiming for direct foreign investment of around $8-$10 billion in 2015/16.

On Friday, King Salman announced that a bridge connecting Egypt and Saudi Arabia would be built across the Red Sea. No details were given.

Egypt also signed development agreements with Saudi Arabia worth $590 million, Egyptian International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr said on Friday.

She said the agreements, signed with the Saudi finance minister, covered development in the Sinai peninsula, agriculture, housing and a university.

The agreements also include a memorandum of understanding between Saudi Aramco and Egypt's Arab Petroleum Pipelines Company SUMED.

Source:www.reuters.com